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Rockbox future strategy
ethanay:
I wonder how much using the smart phone camera vs a dedicated camera parallels this? I think the photography world is a good parallel, as it has a similar set of hardware chain challenges (e.g,. post-processing and printing quality are like DAC, amp and speaker quality). They are really only different in their focus on consumption vs production activities, and that might be superficial for this discussion.
Most people use their smart phones to take pictures, but there appears to still be a strong market for dedicated cameras both among consumers (mostly point and shoot) and professionals (mostly DSLR or mirrorless). Why? Some professionals are using their smart phones to take professional photos, but smart phones are mostly replacing only low-end point and shoot cameras, not mirrorless or DSLR:
http://www.pcworld.com/article/2466500/how-the-smartphone-defeated-the-point-and-shoot-digital-camera.html
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2398032,00.asp
The second article only mentions serious competition between smart phones and the low end point and shoot market niche. The niche point and shoots (e.g., like a Canon PowerShot G series) are still chugging on because they already focused on their market niche, and its based on hardware performance not on convenience.
This is the point that the first article makes at the end: "Sometimes, it’s better to be convenient than good." That is the smart phone: Convenient, but not really Good. Rockbox will find its niche in a focused market that is already not concerned so much about convenience as it is about actual hardware and software performance, which are enthusiast (vs casual) consumers and professionals. And this niche will always exist regardless of convergence and miniaturization trends (which have probably maxed out anyway, Apple even had to scale up its Nano because they were getting too small for comfort!):
"More expensive cameras appear to be bucking this trend, however. The research firm noted that unit shipments and revenue for detachable lens cameras have each grown by better than 10 percent year-over-year, with such cameras boasting an average price tag of $863. Meanwhile, higher-end point-and-shoots, defined as having optical zooms of 10x or greater, had grown by 16 percent in terms of units shipped and by 10 percent in terms of revenue through November. Such products carried an average price of $257, NPD said."
So one of the niches for Rockbox to continue in the future isn't with low-end "point and shoot" DAP devices where it got started, but the DAP equivalent of the DSLR or mirrorless professional (or high-grade consumer) hardware and quality, or even high performance consumer grade stuff like the Canon PowerShot G series. Professionals and enthusiasts, both. Musicians and students. Recording, audio and sound engineers. Producers. Audiophiles.
And if you add Open Hardware into it, then you can capture electrical engineer programs and students. And Rockbox could already be partnering with universities on the software engineering and design side of things. But the hardware partnership would strengthen that a lot.
If Rockbox is trying to stay focused on convenience and low-end hardware, it will probably go away. If it shifts its focus, it will stay around. And there will always be SOME market for dedicated low-end DAP, and if Rockbox can partner proactively with those few(er) SOC OEMs, it can help ensure compatibility without all the hard work reverse engineering, which will ensure that decent affordable players still remain available.
Another point is whether the people currently involved in Rockbox still actually want to stay involved (or if they are shifting their focus or life priorities or are feeling burned out, etc).
I'm learning a lot in this discussion, thanks!
saratoga:
--- Quote from: ethanay on November 06, 2016, 05:39:17 PM --- I think the photography world is a good parallel, as it has a similar set of hardware chain challenges (e.g,. post-processing and printing quality are like DAC, amp and speaker quality).
--- End quote ---
This is a better metaphor than you realize. The camera market is in freefall and most vendors are desperate to establish alternative products that don't compete with smartphones.
ethanay:
Except for...
--- Quote from: ethanay on November 06, 2016, 05:39:17 PM ---"More expensive cameras appear to be bucking this trend, however. The research firm noted that unit shipments and revenue for detachable lens cameras have each grown by better than 10 percent year-over-year, with such cameras boasting an average price tag of $863. Meanwhile, higher-end point-and-shoots, defined as having optical zooms of 10x or greater, had grown by 16 percent in terms of units shipped and by 10 percent in terms of revenue through November. Such products carried an average price of $257, NPD said."
--- End quote ---
Which is my main point. Only low-end consumer point and shoot cameras are in a freefall.
http://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2016/08/24/from-instagram-to-a-dslr-smartphone-photography-driving-dslr-sales
http://www.hindustantimes.com/tech/smartphone-photographers-driving-dslr-sales/story-z8Bh0Rfim6rZRHgPmp8B9N.html
http://www.diyphotography.net/smartphone-photographers-driving-dslr-sales/
So there seems to be big distinction between low-end consumer-grade hardware, enthusiast hardware, and professional hardware. Vendors are slimming down their low-end point and shoot lines and refocusing, or going out of business. The same is true of DAPs. Rockbox has previously focused on the market segment that is slimming down and going away. It will also go away unless it refocuses.
"Canon India saw its DSLR sales increase 26% in the first half of 2016. But while DSLR sales, at least in India, are increasing as a result of a greater interest in photography generated by smartphones, the compact camera market is suffering. Nikon India's senior vice-president of corporate sales and strategy Sajjan Kumar has said that smartphone cameras have adversely impacted the sales of beginner point and shoot cameras."
saratoga:
--- Quote from: ethanay on November 06, 2016, 07:48:39 PM ---Except for...
--- Quote from: ethanay on November 06, 2016, 05:39:17 PM ---"More expensive cameras appear to be bucking this trend, however. The research firm noted that unit shipments and revenue for detachable lens cameras have each grown by better than 10 percent year-over-year, with such cameras boasting an average price tag of $863. Meanwhile, higher-end point-and-shoots, defined as having optical zooms of 10x or greater, had grown by 16 percent in terms of units shipped and by 10 percent in terms of revenue through November. Such products carried an average price of $257, NPD said."
--- End quote ---
Which is my main point. Only low-end consumer point and shoot cameras are in a freefall.
--- End quote ---
The companies that make them are also in freefall. Which is my point.
--- Quote from: ethanay on November 06, 2016, 07:48:39 PM ---"Canon India saw its DSLR sales increase 26% in the first half of 2016.
--- End quote ---
India is a pretty small market for high end cameras, and not enough to save anyone's business. Canon (the global company) is in major trouble and trying to refocus its business away from cameras.
ethanay:
Away from low-end point and shoots, not cameras generally. Canon will not abandon successful product lines just because unrelated product lines aren't working out. They will just cut their losses and explore new opportunities. Which is the same crossroads for Rockbox, it seems.
Otherwise, it's like saying people aren't listening to digital music anymore just because they aren't listening to it on a low-end DAP. It's just not true. There's probably a market unfolding for a high-value DAP that delivers exceptional performance and reliability and is built to last (upgradeable capacities; internal and external modularity and serviceability). But it's not going to look (or cost) anything like a Sansa. Most people won't buy it. But that doesn't matter. It's one of the opportunities for the DAP that isn't in a freefall.
Also, the stuff about smart phones driving DSLR is interesting. India is one of the world's largest and fastest growing consumer markets, and like in China, they often reflect and follow (or sometimes lead) US/European consumer preferences.
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