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Rockbox future strategy

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ethanay:
Sort of a continuation of:
http://forums.rockbox.org/index.php/topic,6751.675.html

This first post provides context for the second post.  Consider it part 1 and part 2.

First off, I love Rockbox.  I've been a silent fan, installing it on friends' and family members' devices for years for various reasons (sound quality, simple interface, skinnable, accessibility, etc).  I don't want to see Rockbox go away. I think it allows us to unlock and explore the full potential of the hardware, and provides real benefit to the end users.  My mom can actually operate and use her PMP.  It works really well.  Very thoughtfully-designed.  Great tools and features for all sorts of different listeners.

So, first and foremost, this post asks the question, "What can we do to keep Rockbox alive?"  Second to this is the question, "Is there a market demand for what Rockbox offers?"  and implied in that, "What does Rockbox truly offer?"  I don't mean a "features list."  I mean real, felt value for the end user.  Because at the end of the day, even (especially!) for a non-profit open source project, if there's no demand, there's no interest.  and if there's really no interest...

So I think first we need to get to know Rockbox and its potential in a new light.  We need to know the value it has created.  Why did it explode all those years ago?  Why did people start developing it?  And why did so many of us flock to using it?

I see two strategies:  continue piggybacking on existing (non-open) hardware stacks and even turn it into an app (which I suspect violates some of the value it created in existing on dedicated reliable PMP hardware), and maybe find/partner with some sort of open hardware stack project.  Or start a PMP-specific open hardware stack.

Although this discussion is focused on demand, I discourage thinking about competition with big manufacturers who follow trends, e.g, of "thinner, smaller" -- current players are ridiculously small and thin.  I can carry what literally used to be a wall of records, tapes or cds in my hand and replay them on demand at ridiculously high fidelity and playback reliability.

So I think we need to identify specific market niches that relate to the intersection of both the philosophy and the specific value of rockbox.  Open source.  Education.  Accessibility (e.g., blind users).  So that's the context for the second post...

ethanay:
Part 2:  a specific strategy to access some targeted market values

Rockbox Open Hardware
-Develop a modular open hardware platform for Rockbox
   +Combo form factor:  user-serviceable (AAA standard?) battery, built-in screen (no screen out), stereo-mini out only, integrated microphone and antenna; integrated A-B repeat button.  Comfortable to hold (form factor, balance).  USAGE SCENARIO:  portable universal-media player; student study tool.
   +Other: integrated controls, SD card-based storage system (internal memory only for OS?); focus on future-proofing (e.g., standardized components), performance (sound quality and battery life), durability and accessibility for blind users.
-Assess market demand for rockbox open hardware platform
   +Institutional markets:  Universities (CompSci, EE, music), government (e.g., military)?
   +Assess consumer market: FLOSS forums, existing rockbox hardware user forums
   +Crowd-funding, with matching funds
-Create sustainable operating model and business ecosystem for Rockbox
   +An existing manufacturer (e.g., Sandisk) may supply open-source hardware based on verifiable demand.
   +Apple model:  Hardware sales support software development
   +Service model:  Software and community support remain free, allowing developers to provide software customization and target support services.

Both computer science (software) and electrical engineering (hardware) departments of universities will have interest in the platform from the software and hardware side of things.  Music programs can offer finished units to students as part of their tuition package, as a study aid (the importance of the integrated microphone, A-B repeat, multi-codec support, and variable speed and pitch controls).  Institutions have connections to other institutions. 

Sales cost max target is $100 per unit, and production costs require $150,000 up-front for setup.  Units cost $75/piece delivered (parts, labor and shipping).  6000 unit sales break even (crowd-funding and institutional pre-orders/matching support).  24 institutional contracts at 250 units per institution per year for one-year break-even.  I pulled these numbers out of my ass, FYI.  But it's a starting point at least.

Institutions can help develop prototype and proof of concept via collaboration between Rockbox, EE and CompSci departments (student projects), music programs as testers.  Reduces development risks and helps guarantee market nice.  Crowd-funding campaign with prototype completed and institutional support can reduce break-even period and increase access to individual consumer markets.  Approach RaspberryPi Foundation early to evaluate and avoid potential niche duplication and help with institutional introductions and distribution?

The software may even be flexible enough where, with the right hardware connections, RB can offer design and consulting on custom niche media player solutions, sort of like how http://64studio.com/ evolved from an open source GNU/linux software multimedia production platform to custom solutions for hardware makers and other niche markets.

wodz:
There are 2 things which are killing rockbox:
1) smartphones as the way people listen music nowadays.
2) smartphones as suckers of development force.

Creating open hardware DAP is simply not a viable option. While it is quite easy to create electronic part of the DAP from on-the-shelf components, mechanical part is really huge investment (not taken into account effort to port rockbox to new platform). Please read how divergent are expectation for new DAP in AGPtek thread.

Chibisteven:
Rockbox will likely be a product of it's time.  Newer technologies eventually displace older ones.  At some point smartphones will eat up what's left of the portable digital audio player market completely.

gomezz:
Is there scope for a Rockbox app to on people's smartphones, tablets etc given that non of the available player apps hold a candle to it?

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