Ever felt stupid?
I finally tracked this down.
Thinking that it might be a problem with variable bitrate, I went back and verified the files I was copying to the player...
It turns out that I must have badly configured my ripping software, because the files had a .ogg suffix but in fact were encoded as MP3s!
I went back and re-ripped them to OGG Vorbis format, and everything works.
The lesson might be that the Rockbox firmware looks at the filename suffix and then tries to use the corresponding codec, rather than the real content (or the magic number). Of course, with a file encoded as MP3, but with an ogg suffix, this isn't going to work, so there's an error.
Beef.